Disclaimer
Look, I am totally making this all up. I have no idea what Adobe or Apple is thinking.
However, in my twisted imagination, this is how this whole Flash/iPhone situation went down…
I can imagine the conversation…
This is how I imagine the conversation going a couple years ago when Adobe first tried to bring flash to the iPhone:
ADOBE: So, how about adding flash support to the iPhone?
APPLE: Yeah, no thanks. We’re not really crazy about how it works on OSX.
ADOBE: Um, pretty please.
APPLE: Yeah, no.
ADOBE: What if we build a Flash cross-compiler that creates native iPhone Apps. That will be much better, right?
APPLE: Still no.
ADOBE: Well, just in case you change your mind we’ll build one anyways.
APPLE: Don’t call us. We’ll call you…
Why the surprise?
I am not sure why anyone, including Adobe, is surprised about the announcement. I cannot image a world where Apple would let this happen. They said “NO” to Flash on the iPhone browser - why would this be different.
This really is the main thing that gets me: I can’t believe that Adobe had the expectation that Apple would just sign off on this. I am going to assume that they new this all along. So then the real question is: why build and publicize a feature that Adobe KNOWS is going to be rejected by Apple?
And, why build something you KNOW Apple will reject?
Let’s pretend to be Adobe. Years of being on 99.9% of all browsers and then two things happen: Apple publicly denounces support for Flash on their Mobile platform (which is really starting to pick up steam) and people really start talking about Flash alternatives and HTML5.
That is not going to make you happy. iPhone, arguably the most advanced mobile platform ever, thumbing it’s nose at Flash. It is going to be hard to explain that one to the investors. Apple and Adobe have a difference of opinion on this but it is Apple’s closed device.
Well, if Adobe can’t convince Apple to put Flash on the iPhone, maybe public opinion can. So Adobe starts making its concerns public in an attempt to get support. And while a lot of people agree with them, a lot of people who are tired of Flash crashing their browser start talking about that, and suggest it was simply time to upgrade to HTML5 anyways. Poor Adobe, if anything now HTML5 has more support.
And this is the point where Adobe decides to build a tool that they KNOW is going to get rejected. If they show it off to developers and get them excited maybe this will be enough.
So they build a Flash-to-iPhone compiler and make it the tentpole feature of Flash CS5 in the hopes public opinion will sway Apple in ways that they cannot.
Days before they can launch Apple explicitly forbids the use of Flash. And the public reacts.
How will a Flash/iPhone compiler help me?
It won’t. The App Store is full already. It is bursting at the seams with Apps.
There may be some developers or publishers that have been waiting for Flash but they have other options. And while those options likely increase the complexity and cost of development they also encourage developers to make apps that are specifically tailored to the iPhone or iPad.
Most (if not ALL) of the time Apple’s tools will make a better App.
Won’t this help me as a developer?
Nope. It will just lower the bar. It will mean anyone that can use Flash can now publish an App. It will get more Apps in an already difficult to navigate store.
Differentiation is what allows you to charge for your App.
The harder it is to create an App the bigger the potential reward for those who do it.
Is this going to work?
Nope. And as far as I can tell it will likely backfire (if it was done for these reasons I imagine).
Steve Jobs isn’t the sort of guy that public pressure works on. He is driven by a purpose larger than public opinion. Apple is driven by this same purpose.
It is going to backfire because Adobe has inadvertently started a debate about the relevancy of Flash. And I don’t think they will be happy with the results. If I was a betting man I would bet on HTML5.
The Punchline
Why develop something that Apple will reject? Clearly this is a posturing attempt by Adobe to get more public support for their efforts to maintain the relevance of Flash.
And I think it will be later known as a tactical error.
